“On September 26, 1983, the world came within minutes of nuclear annihilation.” We could all be dead or never born…if everyone had worked according to protocol and training.
The Crisis
Imagine yourself in Stanislav Petrov’s position on September 26, 1983. You are a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet Air Defense Forces stationed at Serpukhov-15, the command center near Moscow. During your shift, alarms indicate that five Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missiles have been launched from the United States. For 15 seconds, you and your team are in shock, unsure of what to do next. You are living during a particular tense period in the Cold War. A few weeks ago, your nation, the Soviet Union, shot down a Korean Airlines flight, killing all aboard. President Reagan has already labeled the Soviet Union an “evil empire.” Now, as the duty officer, you have to decide: do you alert your superiors to the supposed attack, which would likely trigger a retaliatory strike?
The Decision
Here is what Stanislav Petrov did: After five minutes of analysis, he concluded that the reports were likely a false alarm, despite the system’s insistence on their accuracy. Petrov later explained that his instinct led him to question the reliability of the early-warning system and the unlikelihood of an attack involving only five missiles.
Although initially praised for his calm decision-making, he faced scrutiny during an investigation for failing to properly document the event. In response, he noted he was too occupied managing the situation.
You think?
The alarm had been triggered by a satellite error, which mistook the sun’s reflection for missile launches. Colonel Petrov, who passed away in 2017 at the age of 77, is remembered as a man whose quick thinking helped avert a potential catastrophe during a critical moment in history. One writer noted, “It was estimated that 200 million people, 40% of the American and Soviet populations, would have died in a direct attack, and 2 billion people would have starved when global agriculture was snuffed out by nuclear winter.”
The Lesson for Us
Professor Zoe Chance wrote about this episode in her book, Influence is Your Superpower. She used it to illustrate the value of saying “no.” Sometimes, in everyday life, it is good to just say no.
I’ll write more on this subject another time, but this week I wish to focus on one facet. Oftentimes, if we say no, we can always come back and say yes. I cannot tell you how many times in my professional life I have had folks make recommendations that I have said “no” to. Usually, I would offer a reason for saying “no.” Occasionally, my answer would be based on previous analysis and well thought out. But then, upon further review, I realized that the person who had approached was correct. So, I would then say “yes.” However, I lost nothing by saying “no” first.
For the skeptic, let me quickly acknowledge that saying “no” is not always foolproof. For example, if I’m driving down the road and come across a washed-out bridge, and a good Samaritan stands in the road urging me to turn around, saying “no” could get me killed. But, as a rule of thumb, it is easier to change your mind from “no” to” yes” than vice versa.
So remember, Stanislav Petrov. Many times it is okay to just say, “Nyet.”*
Mark
Dr. Mark Edge
The WorkEdge Company
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Email: workedgetexas@gmail.com
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*For more on this story, see Sewell Chan, Stanislav Petrov, Soviet Officer Who Helped Avert Nuclear War, Is Dead at 77 from The New York Times, September 18, 2017 https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/18/world/europe/stanislav-petrov-nuclear-war-dead.html?searchResultPosition=1